4.5.24: Scenario 23 – Visible Scope Drift and Baseline Erosion
- Page ID
- 54829
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\(\newcommand{\avec}{\mathbf a}\) \(\newcommand{\bvec}{\mathbf b}\) \(\newcommand{\cvec}{\mathbf c}\) \(\newcommand{\dvec}{\mathbf d}\) \(\newcommand{\dtil}{\widetilde{\mathbf d}}\) \(\newcommand{\evec}{\mathbf e}\) \(\newcommand{\fvec}{\mathbf f}\) \(\newcommand{\nvec}{\mathbf n}\) \(\newcommand{\pvec}{\mathbf p}\) \(\newcommand{\qvec}{\mathbf q}\) \(\newcommand{\svec}{\mathbf s}\) \(\newcommand{\tvec}{\mathbf t}\) \(\newcommand{\uvec}{\mathbf u}\) \(\newcommand{\vvec}{\mathbf v}\) \(\newcommand{\wvec}{\mathbf w}\) \(\newcommand{\xvec}{\mathbf x}\) \(\newcommand{\yvec}{\mathbf y}\) \(\newcommand{\zvec}{\mathbf z}\) \(\newcommand{\rvec}{\mathbf r}\) \(\newcommand{\mvec}{\mathbf m}\) \(\newcommand{\zerovec}{\mathbf 0}\) \(\newcommand{\onevec}{\mathbf 1}\) \(\newcommand{\real}{\mathbb R}\) \(\newcommand{\twovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\ctwovec}[2]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\threevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cthreevec}[3]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfourvec}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\fivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{r}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\cfivevec}[5]{\left[\begin{array}{c}#1 \\ #2 \\ #3 \\ #4 \\ #5 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\mattwo}[4]{\left[\begin{array}{rr}#1 \amp #2 \\ #3 \amp #4 \\ \end{array}\right]}\) \(\newcommand{\laspan}[1]{\text{Span}\{#1\}}\) \(\newcommand{\bcal}{\cal B}\) \(\newcommand{\ccal}{\cal C}\) \(\newcommand{\scal}{\cal S}\) \(\newcommand{\wcal}{\cal W}\) \(\newcommand{\ecal}{\cal E}\) \(\newcommand{\coords}[2]{\left\{#1\right\}_{#2}}\) \(\newcommand{\gray}[1]{\color{gray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\lgray}[1]{\color{lightgray}{#1}}\) \(\newcommand{\rank}{\operatorname{rank}}\) \(\newcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\col}{\text{Col}}\) \(\renewcommand{\row}{\text{Row}}\) \(\newcommand{\nul}{\text{Nul}}\) \(\newcommand{\var}{\text{Var}}\) \(\newcommand{\corr}{\text{corr}}\) \(\newcommand{\len}[1]{\left|#1\right|}\) \(\newcommand{\bbar}{\overline{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bhat}{\widehat{\bvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\bperp}{\bvec^\perp}\) \(\newcommand{\xhat}{\widehat{\xvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\vhat}{\widehat{\vvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\uhat}{\widehat{\uvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\what}{\widehat{\wvec}}\) \(\newcommand{\Sighat}{\widehat{\Sigma}}\) \(\newcommand{\lt}{<}\) \(\newcommand{\gt}{>}\) \(\newcommand{\amp}{&}\) \(\definecolor{fillinmathshade}{gray}{0.9}\)Scenario 23 – Visible Scope Drift and Baseline Erosion
Scenario Context
Following a period of stable delivery and increased flexibility, Project Reckon has continued to incorporate enhancement requests and minor adjustments.
In recent weeks:
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Small feature changes were introduced informally
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Backlog reprioritization occurred within iterations
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Direct communication between stakeholders and development teams increased
Individually, these changes appeared manageable.
Collectively, their impact is now becoming visible.
Email from Julie Rama
Subject: Scope Alignment – Emerging Variance
Hi,
I wanted to bring your attention to a trend we’ve identified over the past two iterations.
1. Current Observations
We are seeing a growing divergence between:
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Originally planned scope
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Currently delivered functionality
This appears to be driven by:
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Incremental enhancement requests
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In-iteration backlog adjustments
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Informal additions during development
2. Impact
The cumulative effect is now visible in:
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Increased development effort beyond planned estimates
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Additional QA cycles to support incremental changes
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Difficulty tracking baseline scope vs delivered features
3. Metrics
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Velocity: 92% of baseline
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Defects: 11 open (mostly low severity)
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Burn rate: +10.6% cumulative
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Schedule: Beginning to slip beyond prior stabilization range
4. Vendor Perspective
While individual changes were small, their accumulation is now affecting:
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Predictability
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Cost tracking
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Scope clarity
We recommend reviewing current scope alignment and determining how to proceed.
5. Request
Please advise on:
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Whether to formalize current scope changes
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Whether to reset baseline
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Whether to restrict further adjustments
Best,
Julie
Attachment A – Scope Variance Summary
| Category | Observation |
|---|---|
| Planned Features | Defined in URD + approved backlog |
| Delivered Features | Includes additional enhancements not formally approved |
| Scope Tracking | Partial mismatch between plan and delivery |
Attachment B – Financial & Schedule Impact
| Category | Status |
|---|---|
| Budget | +10.6% cumulative |
| Schedule | Beginning to exceed prior tolerance trends |
| QA Effort | Increased due to incremental additions |
Student Assignment
You are the Project Manager at C-Bay.
The project is now experiencing:
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Visible scope drift
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Baseline misalignment
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Budget and schedule impact from accumulated changes
You must determine:
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Whether scope drift has occurred
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Whether baseline should be reset
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Whether controls should be re-established
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How to regain project alignment
Prepare a formal written response to Julie Rama.
Required Submission Structure
Your memorandum must include:
1️⃣ Executive Position
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Has scope drift occurred?
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Is the project still under control?
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Is intervention required?
2️⃣ Scope Assessment
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How significant is the divergence between planned and delivered scope?
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Should current enhancements be formalized?
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Should scope be rolled back or accepted?
3️⃣ Baseline Strategy
Choose and justify:
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Reinforce original baseline
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Reset baseline to reflect current scope
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Hybrid approach (partial reset + controls)
4️⃣ Budget & Schedule Position
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Is +10.6% burn acceptable?
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Is schedule drift becoming a concern?
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Should corrective measures be implemented?
5️⃣ Process Control Strategy
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Should informal adjustments be stopped?
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Should change control be enforced strictly?
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Should backlog management be restructured?
6️⃣ Risk Assessment
Identify and evaluate:
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Scope creep risk
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Budget overrun risk
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Schedule instability risk
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Governance breakdown risk
Assign likelihood and impact.
7️⃣ Directive to ZynoxDev
Provide a clear directive, such as:
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Freeze scope and enforce change control
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Formalize all additional features through change requests
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Reset baseline with full documentation
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Restrict in-iteration adjustments
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Provide detailed scope reconciliation report
Learning Focus
Scenario 23 introduces:
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Transition from subtle drift to visible impact
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Baseline integrity management
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Scope reconciliation
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Restoring control after flexibility
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Formalizing what was previously informal
Students must demonstrate:
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Recognition of cumulative impact
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Decisive corrective action
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Structured governance thinking
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Control re-establishment
Key Insight
Scope creep is not a single event.
It is:
The accumulation of many “small, reasonable decisions.”
This scenario reinforces:
Control lost gradually must be regained deliberately.